Assumption-driven three-year pro forma and VC presentation · 21 February 2026
Voglio
I serve as Voglio's Chief Financial Officer. I built the Excel pro forma and VC presentation; the founders approved publication of the forecast figures and assumptions.
Academic exercise. Not investment advice. All forward figures are assumption-driven projections for a private fundraise, not realised results. Approximately $325K is a fundraising target and has not been raised.
PowerPoint · 36.2 MB
Original presentation · 8 slides · slides dated 23 April 2026. Financial projections are assumptions, not realized results. Read the limitations and next steps below alongside the deck.
The question
[1]What assumptions would make a subscription and venue-advertising model support an approximately $325K fundraising target for a live, early-stage consumer app?
| Two modeled revenue streams | Net subscription revenue plus venue advertising |
|---|---|
| The forecast is assumption-driven | Monthly active users and premium conversion are estimates, not observed operating results |
| App-store fees are explicit | The model deducts a 30% fee from gross subscription revenue |
Assumptions
[2]| Input | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Forecast horizon | 3 years | Model structure |
| Year-3 revenue | $4.39M — projection | $4.23M net subscription revenue plus $158K venue-advertising revenue |
| Fundraising target | Approximately $325K — not raised | VC presentation |
| Monthly active users | 18K / 110K / 420K | Management assumptions for Years 1–3 |
| Premium conversion | 8% / 10% / 12% | Management assumptions for Years 1–3 |
| Subscription price | $9.99 per month | Model assumption |
| App-store fee | 30% | Model assumption |
| Illustrative customer lifetime | 12 months | Hard-coded in the current LTV formula |
How it is built
- Revenue. Premium users equal monthly active users multiplied by premium conversion; gross subscription revenue is reduced by the assumed app-store fee.
- Venue advertising. Partner counts multiplied by annual revenue per partner produce the second revenue stream.
- Costs. Infrastructure and operating expenses flow into the P&L; CAC spend is calculated separately.
- Limitation. The workbook is not a cohort model, the churn note does not drive formulas, and CAC spend is not directly linked into the P&L.
Three-year model
[3]| $, model output. All years projected. | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly active users | 18,000 | 110,000 | 420,000 |
| Premium users | 1,440 | 11,000 | 50,400 |
| Net subscription revenue | 120,839 | 923,076 | 4,229,366 |
| Venue-advertising revenue | 10,782 | 57,528 | 158,268 |
| Total revenue | 131,621 | 980,604 | 4,387,634 |
| Infrastructure COGS | 40,000 | 125,000 | 250,000 |
| Operating expenses | 266,000 | 500,000 | 2,600,000 |
| Net profit / (loss) | -174,379 | 355,604 | 1,537,634 |
| CAC spend — separate schedule | 65,000 | 1,000,000 | 3,150,000 |
CAC spend is shown separately because the current P&L does not include it. Figures are rounded to the nearest dollar.
What happened
[4]- Product status
- Live on the iOS App Store
- Fundraising
- Approximately $325K target — not raised
- Current work
- Improving the VC presentation
- Hiring
- Building a marketing team
- USC venture competition
- Progressed through the initial stage
The model makes the assumptions behind the fundraising target visible. It should be read as a scenario, not an operating forecast supported by historical performance.
As of 15 September 2026. Source: Voglio company status confirmed by Mikhail Glukhov.
Limitations and next steps
[5]The workbook reproduces the presentation outputs. The following model links and assumptions need reconciliation before using those outputs for operating decisions.
What reconciles. The revenue summary and P&L reproduce the presentation figures: $981K Year-2 revenue, $356K Year-2 profit, $4.39M Year-3 revenue and $1.54M Year-3 profit.
-
Model correction
Link churn to the forecast
The workbook includes a 6% annual churn assumption, but the revenue, user and LTV formulas do not reference it. A next step is to connect retention assumptions to those calculations and reassess the forecast.
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Model correction
Reconcile acquisition spending with the P&L
The separate CAC schedule calculates $65K, $1.0M and $3.15M of annual acquisition spending. The P&L does not link that schedule. These costs need to be reconciled with the expenses included in the P&L before interpreting the projected profits.
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Model correction
Use one consistent user forecast
One input block projects 20K, 80K and 160K active Los Angeles users, while the calculations use 18K, 110K and 420K monthly active users. The next step is to reconcile the definitions and choose a consistent forecast across the workbook.
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Methodological assumption
Customer lifetime is an illustrative assumption
LTV uses a fixed 12-month customer lifetime in each year. It does not model retention cohorts or changes in customer lifetime. The result should be read as an illustration based on that assumption.
Academic exercise. Not investment advice. All forward figures are assumption-driven projections for a private fundraise, not realised results. Approximately $325K is a fundraising target and has not been raised.