Three-year pro forma model and unit economics · 2026
Voglio
Built as a member of the core team. Figures on this page are published with the company's consent.
Academic exercise. Not investment advice. All forward figures are projections prepared for a private fundraise, not realised results, and are published with the company's consent.
The question
[1]What does a proximity-based consumer social app have to believe about acquisition cost, retention and venue advertising for a seed round to make sense?
| Two revenue streams, not one | Subscription alongside venue advertising |
|---|---|
| The model turns on retention, not installs | Churn and LTV drive the Year-3 outcome more than top-of-funnel volume |
| App-store fees are a first-order cost | Modelled explicitly rather than folded into COGS |
Assumptions
[2]| Input | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Forecast horizon | 3 years | Seed-stage convention |
| Year-3 revenue | $4.4M — projection | Subscription plus venue advertising, linked schedules |
| Raise supported | $325K seed | Company disclosure |
| Unit economics modelled | CAC, LTV, churn, app-store fee impact | Built from company operating data |
| Market sizing | TAM / SAM / SOM | Underpinning the investor deck |
How it is built
- Revenue schedule split by stream, driven by user cohorts rather than a single growth rate.
- CAC and churn feed an LTV schedule; the LTV-to-CAC ratio is the model's central output.
- COGS and P&L schedules link back to the revenue build so no line is hard-coded downstream.
- App-store fees applied at the revenue line, before contribution margin.
What happened
[3]- Seed raise supported
- $325K
- USC New Venture Seed Competition
- Advanced past the first round
- Product status
- Live on the iOS App Store
The model's purpose was to make the assumptions behind the raise arguable rather than asserted. The Year-3 figure is the output of the cohort and churn assumptions, not an input — which is the part worth defending.
As of 2026. Source: Company disclosure.
What I would flag reading this back
[4]A three-year model for a pre-revenue consumer app is a statement about assumptions, not a forecast.
What reconciles. The schedules are linked end to end: no downstream line is hard-coded, so changing a cohort assumption moves the Year-3 figure.
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Judgement call
A three-year projection for a pre-revenue app has wide error bars
The output is only as good as the churn assumption, and at seed stage there is rarely enough history to set one with confidence. The honest use of this model is comparative — testing which assumptions the raise depends on — rather than predictive.
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Judgement call
Venue advertising and subscription do not scale the same way
Subscription scales with users; venue advertising scales with density in a given location. Blending them into one revenue line understates how differently each responds to growth.
Academic exercise. Not investment advice. All forward figures are projections prepared for a private fundraise, not realised results, and are published with the company's consent.