Tool · Discounted cash flow

DCF calculator

A driver-based discounted cash flow, with the sensitivity grid that actually decides the answer.

Academic exercise. Not investment advice. This is a simplified driver model — constant growth and margin — so it will not reproduce a year-by-year forecast such as the one on the Northrop Grumman page. It opens on that company's FY2024 figures and discount-rate assumptions so the inputs mean something; every field is editable.

Inputs

[1]

Operating

Last actual revenue

Revenue growth

EBIT margin

Tax rate

D&A

% rev

Capital expenditure

% rev

Change in NWC

% of Δrev

Forecast years

yrs

Valuation

WACC

Terminal growth

Exit EV/EBITDA

Net debt

Shares outstanding

Value

[2]

—Per share, perpetuity
—Per share, exit multiple
—Average

Terminal value as a share of enterprise value is the number worth watching. Above roughly three quarters, the answer is mostly an assumption about the far future rather than about the forecast.

The forecast

[3]

Sensitivity

[4]

WACC across, terminal growth down, both in 25 basis point steps around your inputs. Shaded against the per-share value at your base case: green above, red below. The base case is outlined.

Academic exercise. Not investment advice. No figure produced here is a recommendation, and this page stores nothing and sends nothing.